可持续与气候韧性环境系统分析研究组（Systems Analysis For sustainability And climate ResIlience, SAFARI；https://www.x-mol.com/groups/safari）一直致力于完善、拓展和应用物质代谢分析方法和可持续性评估方法，研究物质在社会经济系统中的流动、转化、蓄积和报废，评估由此产生的环境影响以及材料的再生循环潜力，并据此提出不同时空尺度社会经济可持续转型的策略。具体研究问题和案例覆盖全球和区域水泥建材存量与未来供需、建成环境与基础设施低碳发展、城市矿山开发潜力、新兴能源技术对关键稀缺材料供需的影响等多个领域。专注于“如何评估、预测与调控不同社会经济系统中物质代谢及相关资源环境影响？”这一关键科学问题，开展了多年基础性、延续性研究。

主持或参与多项国自科项目

仅列出部分代表性成果，详情请参考Google Scholar主页：https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=Hj-kD_sAAAAJ&view_op=list_works

Song, L., van Ewijk, S., Masanet, E., Watari, T., Meng, F., Cullen, J., Cao, Z.*, and Chen, W*. (2023). China’s bulk material loops can be closed but deep decarbonization requires demand reduction. Nature Climate Change, 1-8.
Wang, Z., Wiedenhofer, D., Stephan, A., Perrotti, D., Van den bergh, W., and Cao, Z*. (2023). High-resolution mapping of material stocks in Belgian road infrastructure: material efficiency patterns, material recycling potentials, and greenhouse gas emissions reduction opportunities. Environmental Science & Technology, 57(34), 12674-12688.
Wu, T., Ng, S. T.*, Chen, J., & Cao, Z*. (2023). More intensive use and lifetime extension can enable net-zero emissions in China’s cement cycle. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 198, 107144.
Watari, T.*, Cao, Z.*, Hata, S. and Nansai, K. (2022). Efficient use of cement and concrete to reduce reliance on supply-side technologies for net-zero emissions. Nature Communications, 13(1), 4158.
Cao, Z., & Masanet, E. (2022). Material efficiency to tackle the sand crisis. Nature Sustainability, 5(5), 370-371. (News & Views)
Cao, Z., Myers, R.J., Lupton, R.C., Duan, H., Sacchi, R., Zhou, N., Miller, T.R., Cullen, J.M., Ge, Q., & Liu, G. (2020). The sponge effect and carbon emission mitigation potentials of the global cement cycle. Nature Communications, 11(1), 3777.
Cao, Z., O’Sullivan, C., Tan, J., Kalvig, P., Ciacci, L., Chen, W., Kim, J., & Liu, G. (2019). Resourcing the fairytale country with wind power: a dynamic material flow analysis. Environmental Science & Technology, 53(19), 11313-11322.
Cao, Z., Liu, G., Zhong, S., Dai, H., & Pauliuk, S. (2018). Integrating Dynamic Material Flow Analysis and Computable General Equilibrium Models for Both Mass and Monetary Balances in Prospective Modeling: A Case for the Chinese Building Sector. Environmental Science & Technology, 53(1), 224-233.
Cao, Z., Shen, L., Løvik, A. N., Müller, D. B., & Liu, G. (2017). Elaborating the history of our cementing societies: an in-use stock perspective. Environmental Science & Technology, 51(19), 11468-11475.
Cao, Z., Shen, L., Zhong, S., Liu, L., Kong, H., & Sun, Y. (2018). A probabilistic dynamic material flow analysis model for Chinese urban housing stock. Journal of Industrial Ecology, 22(2), 377-391.